Work in Progress
“Adverse Selection and Redistribution in Social Insurance Programs” with Timothy J. Layton and Adam Leive
“Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population” with Kevin Kuruc, Sangita Vyas, Mark Budolfson, and Dean Spears.
“Temperature, Humidity, and Human Fertility: Evidence from 58 Developing Countries” with Melissa LoPalo and Dean Spears
“Age and Infertility Revisited” with Melissa LoPalo and Dean Spears.
Working Papers
“The Private Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid” with Danil Agafiev Macambira, Anthony Lollo, Chima Ndumele, and Jacob Wallace. [slides] Revision requested at The American Economic Review
“The Impact of Education on Family Formation: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the UK” with Heather Royer
“Heat, Humidity, and Infant Mortality in the Developing World” with Dean Spears
Peer Reviewed Publications
“The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College: 1836-2020” with Dean Spears. Accepted at The Review of Economics and Statistics.
“Heritable Fertility is Not Sufficient for Long-Term Population Growth.” Samuel Arenberg, Kevin Kuruc, Nathan Franz, Sangita Vyas, Nicholas Lawson, Melissa LoPalo, Mark Budolfson, Michael Geruso, and Dean Spears. Accepted at Demography.
“What Difference Does a Plan Make? Evidence from Random Plan Assignment in Medicaid” with Timothy Layton and Jacob Wallace. Accepted at American Economic Journal: Applied Economics.
“The Two Margin Problem in Insurance Markets” with Timothy J. Layton, Grace McCormack, and Mark Shepard. Accepted at Review of Economics and Statistics.
“Medicare’s Regulatory Spillovers on Treatment Setting for Non-Medicare Patients” with Michael Richards. Accepted at Journal of Health Economics.
“Inversions in US Presidential Elections: 1836-2016” with Dean Spears and Ishaana Talesara. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 14.1 (2022): 327-57. Media Coverage: Bloomberg, New York Times, Salon, Slate, Vox
“Upcoding: Evidence from Medicare on Squishy Risk Adjustment” with Timothy Layton. Journal of Political Economy, 128.3 (2020): 984-1026. Media Coverage: Bloomberg, NPR, Center for Public Integrity. Slides for instructors: [pdf] [tex]
“Screening in Contract Design: Evidence from the ACA Health Insurance Exchanges” with Timothy Layton and Daniel Prinz. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 11.2 (2019): 64-107. Slides for instructors: [pdf]
“Do Larger Health Insurance Subsidies Benefit Patients or Producers? Evidence from Medicare Advantage” with Marika Cabral and Neale Mahoney. American Economic Review, 108.8 (2018): 2047-2048. Slides for instructors: [pdf]
“Sanitation, Disease Externalities, and Anemia: Evidence From Nepal” with Diane Coffey and Dean Spears. The Economic Journal, 128 (2018): 1395-1432.
“Neighborhood Sanitation and Infant Mortality” with Dean Spears. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, 10 (2018): 125-62. Media Coverage: New York Times, The Economist, Five Thirty Eight
“Selection in Health Insurance Markets and Its Policy Remedies” with Timothy Layton. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 31.4 (2017): 23-50.
“Demand Heterogeneity in Insurance Markets: Implications for Equity and Efficiency” Quantitative Economics, 8.3 (2017): 929-975.
“Tradeoffs in the Design of Health Plan Payment Systems: Fit, Power and Balance” with Thomas McGuire. Journal of Health Economics 47 (2016): 1-19.
“Insurance Fraud in the Workplace? Evidence from a Dependent Verification Program” with Harvey Rosen. Journal of Risk and Insurance 82.4 (2015): 921-946.
“Racial Disparities in Life Expectancy: How Much Can the Standard SES Variables Explain?”Demography, 49.2 (2012): pages 553-574.
Other Publications
“Will Personalized Medicine Mean Higher Costs for Consumers?” with Anupam Jena and Timothy Layton. Harvard Business Review, March 1, 2018.
“The Many Definitions of Social Security Privatization” with Don Fullerton. The Economists’ Voice: Vol. 3: No. 4, 2006. Reprinted in The Economists’ Voice: Top Economists Take On Today’s Problems. Eds. Joseph Stiglitz, Aaron Edlin, and J. Bradford DeLong. Columbia University Press, 2007.