My book with Dean Spears, After the Spike: Population, Progress, and the Case for People, is now out and a national bestseller. Reviews, links to podcasts, and information on some of the research behind the book can be found at afterthespike.com.
I’m an Associate Professor in the Economics Department of the University of Texas and a faculty scholar at UT-Austin’s Population Research Center, as well as a Faculty Research Associate at the National Bureau of Economic Research. I work on issues in demography, healthcare, and various other topics in applied microeconomics. My aims are to inform policy with sound evidence and to advance broadly shared human wellbeing. [research papers] [bio]
In 2023 and 2024, I took leave from UT-Austin to serve in the White House as a Senior Economist at the Council of Economic Advisers, where I advised on issues of health, population, and economic policy.
Recent media appearances and bylined articles
visit afterthespike.com for a full listing
Discussing the Legacy of The Population Bomb on The World (PRX/NPR) [PRX/NPR stream, Spotify]
My New York Times op-ed with Dean Spears “Depopulation Is Coming. Don’t Expect It to Solve Our Problems” [NYTimes gift link]
“The Depopulation Bomb – As global fertility rates drop, two economists make the case for humans” Interview and book review at WSJ by Greg Ip. [WSJ]
“The Economic Case for Higher Birth Rates Is Bigger than You Think” a guest post by Dean and me at Briefing Book
Discussing After the Spike on NPR/Planet Money [Apple] [Spotify]
A fun conversation about After the Spike with Daniel and Kelly’s Extraordinary Universe [Apple] [Spotify]
Dean Spears and I on The Good Fight podcast [Apple]
Plain English with Derek Thompson podcast, discussing Medicare waste and the Trump Administration. [Ringer] [Apple] [Spotify]
Recent research
“Is Less Really More? Comparing the Climate and Productivity Impacts of a Shrinking Population” with Kevin Kuruc, Sangita Vyas, Mark Budolfson, and Dean Spears.
“The Likelihood of Persistently Low Global Fertility” with Dean Spears. Journal of Economic Perspectives.
“Heritable Fertility is Not Sufficient for Long-Term Population Growth.” Samuel Arenberg, Kevin Kuruc, Nathan Franz, Sangita Vyas, Nicholas Lawson, Melissa LoPalo, Mark Budolfson, Michael Geruso, and Dean Spears. Demography.
The Private Provision of Public Services: Evidence from Random Assignment in Medicaid” with Danil Agafiev Macambira, Anthony Lollo, Chima Ndumele, and Jacob Wallace. Forthcoming/accepted at The American Economic Review
“The Risk of Narrow, Disputable Results in the U.S. Electoral College: 1836-2020” with Dean Spears. Forthcoming/accepted at The Review of Economics and Statistics.